Qualified Remodeler Magazine

MAY 2017

Qualified Remodeler helps independent remodeling firms to survive, become more professional and more profitable by providing must-have business information, namely best business practices, new product information and timely design ideas.

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homeowners are projected to reach al- most $320 billion by early next year." The Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) provides a short-term out- look of national home improvement and repair spending to owner-occupied homes. The indicator, measured as an annual rate- of-change of its components, is designed to project the annual rate of change in spending for the current quarter and subse- quent four quarters, and is intended to help identify future turning points in the business cycle of the home improvement and repair industry. Originally developed in 2007, the LIRA was re-benchmarked in April 2016 to a broader market measure based on the biennial American Housing Survey. Remodeler confidence reaches highest level since 2015 The National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB) Remodeling Market Index (RMI) rose to 58 in the first quarter of 2017, an in- crease of five points from the fourth quarter of 2016 and the highest reading since 2015. An RMI above 50 indicates that more remodelers report market activity is higher (compared to the prior quarter) than report it is lower. The overall RMI averages ratings of current remodeling activity with indicators of future remodeling activity. "A milder than usual winter has led to increased remodeling activity and a positive outlook for spring," says NAHB Remodelers chairman Dan Bawden, CAPS, GMB, CGR, CGP, a remodeler from Houston. Regaining strength from a three-point dip in the previous quarter, the current market conditions increased five points to 58. Among its three major components, all saw an increase from last quarter, with major additions and alterations up four points, demand for smaller remodeling projects increasing by seven points, and the home maintenance and repair com- ponent rising six points. The index measuring future market indicators also reached 58, meeting the highest point of 2016. Calls for bids rose significantly from 49 to 59, amount of work committed grew from 50 to 58, the back- log of remodeling jobs increased from 55 to 62, and appointments for proposals remained constant at 54. | companies will be subject to the retroac- tive collection of cash deposits. The petitioner for this action is the Committee Overseeing Action for Lumber International Trade Investigations or Negotiations (COALITION), which is an ad hoc association whose members are: U.S. Lumber Coalition, Inc. (DC); Collum's Lumber Products, L.L.C. (SC); Hankins, Inc. (MS); Potlatch Corporation (WA); Rex Lumber Company (FL); Seneca Sawmill Company (OR); Sierra Pacific Industries (CA); Stimson Lumber Company (OR); Swanson Group (OR); Weyerhaeuser Company (WA); Carpenters Industrial Council (OR); Giustina Land and Timber Company (OR); and Sullivan Forestry Consultants, Inc. (GA). The CVD law provides U.S. business- es and workers with an internationally accepted mechanism to seek relief from the injurious effects of unfairly subsidized imports into the United States. Improvement spending continues but could lose steam Strong gains in home remodeling and re- pair activity are expected to ease moving into next year, according to the Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) released by the Remodeling Futures Program at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. The LIRA projects that annual growth in home improvement and repair expenditure this year will remain above its long-term trend of 5 percent, but will decline steadily from 7.3 percent in the first quarter to 6.1 per- cent by the first quarter of 2018. "Homeowners are continuing to spend more on improvements as house prices strengthen in most parts of the country," says Chris Herbert, managing director of the Joint Center for Housing Studies. "Yet, recent slowdowns in home sales activity and remodeling permitting suggests im- provement spending gains will lose some steam over the course of the year." "The remodeling market is approaching a cyclical slowdown after several years of steady recovery," says Abbe Will, re- search analyst in the Remodeling Futures Program at the Joint Center. "While the rate of growth is starting to trend down, national remodeling expenditures by 2013. Other building materials price in- creases in March were much more modest. Gypsum and ready-mix concrete prices rose by 0.2 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively, on a seasonally adjusted basis in March. The moderate growth of gypsum prices is a welcome sign, as it hopefully signals a continuation of prices remaining in a "new normal" range rather than rising sharply at the start of each year. Ready-mix concrete prices contin- ued a years-long upward trend marked by near-continuous monthly increases and have increased 0.7 percent since the beginning of 2017. The economy-wide PPI declined 0.1 per- cent in March, falling short of market ex- pectations. Three-fourths of the decrease is attributable to prices paid for services. Prices for final demand goods also edged lower by 0.1 percent. Final demand prices for core goods (i.e., goods excluding food and energy) continued the upward trend that began in November 2016, rising 0.4 percent. Prices for core goods less trade services climbed 0.1 percent. Most of the decline in prices paid for final demand goods was due to a 2.9 percent drop in energy prices. Conversely, the index for final demand foods rose 0.9 percent. Over half of the decline in prices for final demand services can be traced to prices for final de- mand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing. Loan services led the March decline in services prices, falling 4.1 percent. Canadian Softwood Lumber Tariff Threatened President Donald Trump threatened a 20 percent tariff on softwood lumber late last month, The final determination is months away, the Commerce Department said. On April 24, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross announced the preliminary deter- mination in the countervailing duty (CVD) investigation of softwood lumber from Canada. The result was that exporters of softwood lumber from Canada received countervailable subsidies of 3.02 percent to 24.12 percent on lumber valued at an estimated $5.66 billion in 2016. Unless the final determination is post- poned, Commerce is currently scheduled to announce its final CVD determination on Sept. 7. U.S. Customs and Border Protection will then collect cash deposits based on these preliminary rates. In addition, certain 10 May 2017 QR QualifiedRemodeler.com IN BRIEF

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