Qualified Remodeler Magazine

OCT 2016

Qualified Remodeler helps independent remodeling firms to survive, become more professional and more profitable by providing must-have business information, namely best business practices, new product information and timely design ideas.

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remodelers should heed as they look ahead and make decisions about the future of their businesses. e first is the constrained supply of homes for sale. Second is the strong de- mographics that will drive 12.5 million new households into the market between 2016 and 2025. A massive survey of 23,000 home buyers earlier this year finds that more than half of the respondents simply cannot find a home they like or want to buy. For remodelers, this means that existing-home sales — that engine of remodeling growth — is likely to be low for quite some time. e silver lining is that homeowners are staying put and embarking on bigger projects. It will drive room additions as well as major exterior renovations like siding and windows, says Burns' Todd Tomalak. e demographic analysis comes from a forthcoming book by John Burns on the subject, where large generational groups are studied in smaller, decade-long age cohorts. e book draws a correlation between Great Depression Era babies and those born in the 1980s, and assumes similar rates of household formation between the two groups. For re- modelers this means a good runway for home improvement activity in the years ahead. All of this macro level discussion leads me to cite a pillar of microeconomic theory, the eory of Rational Expectations. Businesses make decisions about the future based on current conditions, past experiences and ra- tional expectations for future conditions. If the forecast is any guide, remodeling should be strong (with only slight interruptions) for the next decade. It suggests you can rationally expect a strong foundation on which to grow your remodeling business. | t our office we use an online tool called Google Analytics. It gives us a readout on our websites. Among other things, it tells us which ar- ticles, videos and webinars are most popular with you, our readers. I confess to looking at these numbers quite often. In general, remodelers gravitate toward arti- cles that offer clear solutions to specific prob- lems. A recent article we wrote about decking fasteners scored surprisingly well. So too do articles that help solve business related prob- lems — think marketing, pricing, profit, etc. is information guides our planning so we can give you more of what you seek. Here's another confession: I like eonomic stories about the broader market more than you do. I understand the sentiment. You are too deep in the nuances of your local market to really take an interest in the broader in- dustry. at said, this month we present new forecast numbers from John Burns Real Estate Consulting. LOOKING AHEAD Economists concede that forecasting is fraught with peril. ere are always unforeseen events and responses to conditions that derail expect- ed outcomes. e work of John Burns Real Estate Consulting is remarkable for how far into the future it is willing to peg the indus- try. As was revealed last month, they expect the industry to grow 26 percent by the end of 2019. eir forecast suggests that we've not only come all the way back from the depths of the housing collapse, but we are headed higher in coming years. is month's discussion of their forecast includes two fascinating macro-level drivers Rational Expectations A 6 October 2016 QR QualifiedRemodeler.com EDITORIAL DIRECTOR'S NOTE Published by SOLA Group, Inc. 1880 Oak Ave., Suite 350 Evanston, IL 60201 847.920.9513 Publisher and Patrick L. O'Toole Editorial Director Patrick@SOLAbrands.com Associate Editor Kacey Larsen Kacey@SOLAbrands.com Proofreader Nancy Mueller-Truax Audience Development Mike Serino MSerino@magservgroup.com Creative Director & Tracy Hegg Production Manager Tracy@SOLAbrands.com Editorial Advisory Board Stephen Gidley, GMB, CAPS, CGP, CGB, CGR, CPRC, CR Jeffrey Holloway, CKD, CBD, CGR Michael Nagel, CGR, CAPS Scott R. Sevon, CGR, CAPS, GMB, CGP, GMR Donna Shirey, CGR, CAPS, CGP Kenneth P. Skowronski, CR Midwest and West Paul DeGrandis Sales Manager Paul@SOLAbrands.com East Sales Manager Beth Emerich EmerichB@SOLAbrands.com National Automotive Tom Lutzke Sales TLutzke@ACBusinessMedia.com Literature Galleries/ Mike Serino Classifieds Mike@SOLAbrands.com Digital Programs Tim Steingraber Manager Tim@SOLAbrands.com Projects Manager Heidi Riedl Heidi@SOLAbrands.com A preferred publication of the National Association of the Remodeling Industry and the NAHB Remodelers Patrick L. O'Toole

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