favorable remodeling conditions — rising incomes, rising
home prices and greater access to lending.
It turns out the lower levels of home sales and mobility
are not due to a lack of demand for homes, but rather a
constraint on supply. e JBRC buyer survey showed that
high student debt, credit tightness and income were cited
as home purchase obstacles by only 10 percent of respon-
dents. More than 50 percent, however, indicated "they
were simply struggling to find a home that they wanted to
purchase," Tomalak explains. "is suggests it is a supply
problem more than a demand issue. If we go back several
decades and look at home sales over time, the ratio of for-
sale homes as a percentage of occupied housing stock is at
an all-time low."
MORE NESTERS MEANS BIGGER PROJECTS
Maintenance and repair jobs — typically those under
$5,000 — remain a key driver of remodeling activity going
forward. Small-project growth is expected to be 7 percent in
2016, 9 percent in 2017, 7.5 percent in 2018 and 5 percent
in 2019. is strong and steady support of small projects is
driven by a multitude of factors, not the least of which is
slower-than-normal GDP growth. According to Tomalak,
2007
$284.9 $284.9
$270.5
$233.1 $233.1
$215.0
8.9%
6.5%
8.3%
7.7% 7.7%
$247.1
$237.3 $237.3
$240.3 $240.3
$265.4
$280.4
$303.7
$350
$300
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Remodeling
Spending,
$Billions
2016
Year-over-year
%
Growth
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Harvard Joint Center for Housing
Studies LIRA Forecast
Covers owner projects Covers owner and rental
Burns Residential Repair and
Remodel Spending
2013 2014 2015E 2016P
Burns Residential Repair And Remodel Spending™
■ Small Project Discretionary ■ Big Project Discretionary ■ Disaster Repairs
Remodel Forecast Comparison
■ Big Project ■ Small Project ■ Total (Including Disaster)
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC (Data: Aug-16, Pub: Aug-16)
The Burns Residential Repair and Remodel Spending outlook is segmented into projects over $5,000 (big project discretionary), projects under
$5,000 (small project discretionary) and disaster repairs. Overall spending is forecast to grow 8.3 percent in 2016 and 6.3 percent in 2017.
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC; Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies (Data: Aug-16, Pub: Aug-16)
Harvard University's Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) and the Burns
Repair and Remodel forecast are in alignment for 2016.
$322.8
$340.4
$353.1
2017P 2018P 2019P
QualifiedRemodeler.com QR October 2016 31